The 2022 MLB Non-Mock Mock Draft
The article no one asked for from a writer who doesn't know anything
Tomorrow will mark the 4th draft for the Elias regime. While the previous three felt like rare bright spots in otherwise dismal seasons, like brief spells of aspirin-induced lucidity for a fanbase with a chronic migraine, this one not so much. Right now, O’s fans are lucky enough to root for one of the hottest teams in baseball. They’re finally fun to watch again, and unlike the obligation it often felt like during those past 3+ seasons, it’s actually a joy to tune in these days. I mean, even with the power out for the Cubs series, I still took a sixer out to the car and listened to the radio call. In a million years, I wouldn’t have done that for the 2019 team. I would’ve chalked the storm up to an act of God, his saving grace shielding my eyeballs from garbage baseball.
So with it finally being fun to watch the MLB club again, I’m worried I might fall into the trap of downplaying the importance of this draft. I mean it was the thing I looked forward to the most over the previous three seasons, but during this hot streak, I found myself completely forgetting it was only days away. And that’s probably because in terms of fandom, this team no longer gives off the vibe of a drowning man flailing about, frantically grasping for any floating object in the vicinity. Maybe this one feels more like a gift, like we’re playing with house money. And sometimes it’s easier to overlook the real value of something you’ve been gifted.
That’s why I remind myself daily that this didn’t just fall into our laps. That we earned it by ingesting so much terrible baseball. By being the goto target of every sanctimonious sports writer and every snide fan of the other AL East teams. So let’s not downplay this. This pick is one last reward for all the bullshit we had to stomach. The cherry on top of the rebuild sundae. Because not only do we finally get to watch an incredibly entertaining team which is just starting to peak, but we get the first pick of whoever we want to add to this already stacked farm system. And so even though the gravitational pull of the big league club is so great right now, let’s not overlook the draft in any way, shape or form. The person we select could literally be the last link in the chain. The player who pushes us over the tipping point. The difference between a trip to the ALCS and a trip to the WS. An integral ingredient for a championship roster.
So clearly the most important part of the draft is maximizing the value of this (again, rightfully earned) good fortune. But Sunday will also give us another hint as to what Mike Elias’ true draft strategy actually is. Once more, that’s nowhere near as important as the potential of adding a great player or players, but we’d all be lying if we said we weren’t a tad excited to obtain another piece to this enthralling puzzle. Because really, trying to figure this dude out is like some escape room all of Birdland has been trapped inside since Dec 2019. And this might be the decisive clue which triggers the exit door to swing open. Insomuch as the enigma that is Mike Elias can be solved, tomorrow’s pick will be a vital data point.
Now our current understanding of his draft strategy can be summed up with three phrases, which I’ll list in the order that I think he values them. Others may have a different order, but I bet everyone who follows this closely has the same three phrases:
Up-the-middle
College bat
Underslot
Of his three first rounders so far, Adley and Kjerstad hit two of the three bullets, and Cowser went three for three. But in a tantalizing twist, four out of the five established top picks in the 2022 MLB Draft only meet one of these criteria—some possibly none (based on some unknowns and some mitigating circumstances). So depending on who he selects, there’s a wide range of outcomes regarding how he’s perceived going forward. He might completely cement his reputation, or he might cause it to implode on itself like an old, rundown building. Without a doubt, it’ll be an interesting subplot to follow.
Yet, a more depressing subplot will likely bubble up late Sunday night or early Monday morning–the beginnings of what I call ”Whinge About The Draft” Week1. Now the MLB Draft’s cousin, the NFL draft, has a similar yearly cadence. But, with the outsized influence that football has on our society, the people complaining most likely did their homework—watched video, read in-depth scouting reports, followed the combine closely. While I still hate their impulsive, histrionic reaction 95% of the time, their bellyaching is at least earned in that scenario. The MLB draft reactionaries, on the other hand, honestly don’t have a leg to stand on.
At first, that might sound harsh, but I’m by no means ragging on O’s fans' baseball intelligence. We have a smart, informed fanbase for the most part, and I’m extremely thankful for that. So I’m not saying they weren’t willing to put in the work, I’m saying that, for any non-scout layperson, the work itself is a next-to-impossible undertaking. Because what percentage of O’s fans regularly watch GA HS baseball or Cal Poly games? If you told me it’s even 1%, I’d say you’ve drastically over estimated.
But even without the requisite info and background, fans, for whatever reason, latch onto one of the prospects like a barnacle on the hull of a ship. Which, honestly, I wouldn’t mind, except they’ll then lose their shit when that person isn’t selected. When Elias deviates from their, again, uninformed allegiance, they go into full meltdown mode.
And just how did they become so locked into this dyed-wool conclusion in the first place? What is the thought process behind this process so clearly absent of thought? Well, I’ve briefly tackled this topic before. Here’s a paragraph from my Camden Yards wall article:
“I'll back Birdland to the end, but most of you have lost your goddamn minds about the draft. These knee-jerk reactions to a process that takes five years to accurately assess need to stop. As does the bellyaching when [Elias] passes on your preferred player. He’s a world class talent evaluator, you read a couple mock drafts and watched some shady online highlight videos.”
And nothing has swayed me from this position. I think it’s that simple. On the day following the previous draft, people start reading mock drafts for the next one. For an entire year, they consume these rehashed paragraphs, all which mostly provide a fresh jumbling of the same info, and blindly pick one of the recurring characters. Then they scour YouTube for highlight videos, which, since they’re put out by either the AD or the player himself, only showcase the player's talents while ignoring all his flaws. This only reinforces their original rash opinion, and, as the number of mock drafts they consume skyrockets closer to the draft, this preference gets tattooed onto the fan’s psyche. And why am I so confident in this assessment? Why am I so familiar with this procedure? Because I’m guilty of it myself.
So while I still find the reflexive shitstorm extremely annoying, on some level I completely understand it, because becoming emotionally invested in a player or team isn’t associated with the logical part of a person’s brain. And while I can empathize, I still must plead with the social-media-types of Birdland, however large/small/unified/fragmented you might be, to temper your groaning about whoever we pick to whatever degree you are capable of doing so. Of course, I’m happy to admit that you all have every right to speak your mind. In return, I’ll ask that you all admit you have no idea what you’re talking about. And I’ll admit that I don’t either. Because claiming I have any genuine or unique insight as to who they should select this Sunday would be a lie of epic proportions.
Sorry for the long, meandering preamble, but I had to set expectations for this piece. Clearly, I won't be hammering you with a pairing of five names with five teams that you’ve seen 1000 times before. This isn’t a mock draft, and I have no idea who the best player is at this moment—or more importantly, who will become the best player in 3-5 years. And I also have no clue if there are high-potential players lurking in the later rounds. Or what fraction of the money pool makes sense to reserve for them. It’s all a mystery swirling around my dumb, dumb skull. So if you’re looking for that kinda thing, just Google, “MLB Mock Draft 2022.” You’ll find people way more capable than me of breaking that down.
But I will be taking a look at the players I’ve seen at the top of various mocks, and analyzing each as the potential #1 pick using the following criteria:
How the pick fits in with the current roster/farm system
What it confirms or disproves about Mike Elias’ draft strategy
How O’s fans would react to it online
And I will end this piece with an explanation of who I want Elias to draft. But I implore you to take that with the largest grain of salt you can find. Because, again, I know next to nothing about any of these human beings.
So let's start the show:
Druw Jones
Roster implication: I love how well this works with our current timeline. Even with a Santander trade likely imminent, there’s still a glut of OF talent in both the bigs and in the minors. There’ll be a trial-and-error aspect to figuring out the best 3-4 of the bunch, which could take a significant amount of time. So taking a HS OF, at the very least, buys Elias some runway. Because unless Jones truly is an otherworldly talent, the front office should have at least 2-3 years until they need to worry about making a move to accommodate him. And I’d hate to see them forced to trade a talented player (or relegate a MLB-caliber player to AAA) solely because of a surplus.
MEDS: This would basically put to rest all the “framing this as an observation but it’s actually a criticism” commentary surrounding Mike Elias’ draft strategy. No longer could people claim he’ll always take an available college bat. No longer could people say he’ll always go underslot if given the chance. If Jones is the pick here, BPA needs to be added (I didn’t say ‘replace,’ mind you, just ‘to be added’) to Elias’ bag of tricks. So, if this is the pick, going forward I will personally describe the Elias drafting process as: “He evaluates all the information at his disposal from a multitude of perspectives and makes a selection based on that evaluation.” It wouldn’t be a succinct or sexy description by any means, but it would be an accurate one.
Fan Reaction Online: There’ll never be zero social media temper tantrums, but I think this would be the tamest of the five scenarios I’ll be covering. It feels like people will be mostly onboard with this selection. If anything, we might see people coming out of the woodwork with contrarian takes like: “JONES IS OVERRATED!! ELAIS SHOULDA GONE UNDERSLOT AND MAXIMIZED VALUE IN LATER RONDS!!! THIS GUY A MORON!!!!”
Jackson Holliday
Roster implication: I still like the HS player development timeframe with this pick, but not nearly as much as I do with an outfielder. Looking at Henderson, Westburg, Prieto, etc…it may seem like we’re lousy with shortstops. But it’s not a guarantee that any of them can play SS in the majors, so a three-year development time frame for our heir apparent at short might actually work against the window we’re entering. Not to mention, Jackson has the same question mark about sticking at SS2 as everyone else in our system. Now, maybe they’re planning to sign a FA SS to a 3- or 4-year contract this offseason. That would certainly ease most concerns I have in this area, as we could give Jackson time to fill out and see where he ends up sticking.
MEDS: This sort of depends if Holliday is an underslot candidate or not. From what I’ve read, there’s no indication he’s willing to go wildly underslot, so it might only be moderate savings compared to Jones. And since this has obvious Buxton/Correa parallels, I don’t foresee any noteworthy changes about the Elias draft mythos. It’ll just be another example of “Selecting a HS shortstop is permissible when a HS OF demands fullslot.”
Fan Reaction Online: I’d rank this meltdown at like a 4 or 5 out of 10. Most people would probably be mad we didn’t get Jones and also be upset over the window/timeline conundrum I outlined in the first bullet. While I don’t think this would be all that bad comparatively, I’ll still be going out of my way to avoid it all the same.
Elijah Green
Roster Implication: Pretty much exactly the same as Druw Jones. Though if this kid is the physical specimen everyone says he is, maybe he could be ready for the bigs sooner than most high schoolers. And that would only serve to make the embarrassment of riches we already have in the outfield that much more embarrassing. And the flip side of being ‘forced’ to trade someone is to have all the leverage when shopping talented players, thus basically guaranteeing a fair return.
MEDS: If selecting Druw Jones tears down the established Mike Elias narrative, selecting Elijah Green pulverizes it into dust before shooting it into space. It seems like this pick is unlikely for other reasons, but Elias selecting a boom-or-bust high schooler with swing-and-miss issues—even if he were to agree to underslot—would surely make plenty of heads around Birdland (and elsewhere) explode.
Online Fan Reaction: If you’re like me and you hate to see other fans of your team act like jackasses online, this is easily our worst case scenario. If Elias takes Green just throw your laptop out the window and flush your phone down the toilet. Technology can be replaced. Your sanity cannot.
Termarr Johnson
Roster Implications: Players limited to certain positions defensively will be, by definition, limited in where they can play. And it seems like 2nd is Westburg’s/Norby’s to lose, so he could face headwinds getting to the majors. But I don’t know what it is, I just can’t quit this kid. Because when I see descriptions like “Wade Boggs meets Vlad Sr,” I just couldn't care less about his defensive limitations. And I know evaluators are always going to fawn over highly touted prospects, but that phrase is stuck in my head like the hook of an annoying pop song. Now, this may come as a surprise to my readers (let's be honest…reader) as I will get on any soapbox at any time and bemoan the lack of respect for defense in modern baseball. And that will naturally spill over into urging the O’s to value D as much as offense. But there’s an exception to every rule. And as a long-avowed Harold Baines stan, it wouldn’t be my first dalliance of this type. So I wouldn’t hesitate to welcome a Boggs/Guerrero hybrid into the organization. We can worry about his position later…just get him in orange and black.
MEDS: Based on reports, Termarr is sliding down draft boards a bit. Where some might view this as a red flag, I imagine Mike Elias is at least considering that this could be a chance to maximize value by getting a 1.1-worthy player at underslot value. Now, this would cut against Elias’ perceived unwillingness to draft non-premium positions and/or high school bats. But it would feed right into the narrative that he loves to go underslot (if that is indeed the situation–I have no idea if Johnson is willing to sign for underslot money) and would curtail his other preferences to do so. If this ends up happening, I’d have to rearrange my own ranking of his criteria and put underslot at the top.
Online Fan Reaction: I think it would be at least a touch better than Green, but I can’t imagine it going over that well. Online commenters always struggle to see the forest for the trees in the world of underslotting3. They still don’t realize that any evaluation of the Kjerstad pick should in reality be an evaluation of the Kjerstad and Mayo picks—as the two are inexorably linked. And speaking of the 2020 draft, I also feel like the same people who complained about passing on Austin Martin and his defensive limitations are going to be the ones caterwauling should they take Johnson. All while not seeing a lick of irony in those conflicting opinions. Regardless, this won’t be a popular pick for many reasons, so you might want to consider a social media sabbatical if this happens.
Brooks Lee
Roster Implications: From a pure roster perspective, this might be the best scenario. A position of need that could be pro-ready in a little more than a year or so, barring any setbacks. The O’s are entering a window, and having a SS locked up for that run would be amazing. Now there’s no guarantee even that college shortstops always stick at the position in the pros, so if scouts think he’ll grow out of the position, then it changes everything dramatically. There seems to potentially be a Hernderson-Westburg-Mayo logjam at 3rd, and I don’t know if bringing in another (likely) third baseman improves the roster4.
MEDS: No other selection would reify everything we believe about Mike Elias quite like this one would. People claim Elias loves dependable, up-the-middle college bats above all else, and this would indeed confirm Elias loves dependable, up-the-middle college bats above all else. And I can’t imagine Lee goes 1.1 at fullslot value either. I think we could go ahead and chisel everything we believe about Elias in stone, if this happens.
Fanbase reaction: “I told you so! Didn’t I tell you? Didn’t I tell you? I TOLD YOU SO!!!”
Now as promised, I’ll let you behind my irrational and pointless curtain. Like everyone else, I’ve read the mocks and watched the highlight videos. And as much as I hate to admit it, I’ve formed nonsensical relationships with all these players, as well. But first, before we get to that, let me lament about an option that this draft doesn’t afford. What I’d wish was an option above everything else—a stud college pitcher. Roster-wise, man, are all conditions perfect for a Leiter-type pick this year. As tantalizing as the promise of a GreyRod/Hall/Means rotation is, it’s far from a lock, and a high-quality insurance policy would’ve been incredible. Bolstering the future rotation would’ve been my above all preference with this gift of 1.1. But, alas, it wasn’t meant to be.
So given the reality we’re facing at the top of the board, who do I want? Why Druw Jones, of course. Because I love top-notch, jaw-dropping defense. I love an outfielder with an absolute hose. And the thought of a literal Andruw Jones clone patrolling Camden’s outfield for a decade makes me giddy. You add to that an above-average bat5, and it just sweetens the pot. I also love both our current crop of outfielders as well as the ones knocking on the door. Taking a HS player allows for (unless he’s a phenom) a 2-3 year window to assess what we have. Not only are Hays and Mullins candidates for long-term contracts, but Cowser, Kjerstad, Stowers, Haskins and Diaz—no, I haven’t given up on Diaz—all need a chance to prove themselves. So, if Jones can mature in the minors while Elias and Hyde figure everything else out, that’s clearly an extremely fortuitous situation. They’ll have about three years to see what they have, then Jones can be an injection of talent into what should be a really capable team in 2025 or 2026. So I want Jones. I want him in Aberdeen as fast as possible.
And while I would never cater my desired pick around proving/disproving the Elias draft strategy, it’d also be nice to not have to hear about what it is and what it isn’t anymore. We could, at that point, say that he’s open to anything, including BPA if it makes the most sense with all the other factors weighed in6.
So will they take Jones? I honestly have no idea, not even an inkling. But what I do know is that I’ll be content with whatever decision Elias makes. And that’s because, in terms of the roster and the farm system, I’ve come to trust this front office implicitly. Now, I had to pause even writing that sentence, because it’s such foreign terrain for the fans of this franchise. And I’m just as astonished that we’ve arrived here as anyone else. But I think I’m in a place where I can say, “You’ve all made strides in 4 years that I thought were damn near impossible, so just do what you all think is best. I’m confident you’ll make the right call.”
So if they determine the best thing for this organization is to take Jones, then take him. If Jones demands overslot compensation and they think he’s worth it, trust your gut and go for it. Or maybe they think Lee’s more of a sure thing and that makes them more comfortable. Great! While I’m on the fence about it at this moment, I’d talk myself into that in a heartbeat, because I have faith in this regime. Is it Johnson at underslot value? Wonderful! Is it Johnson at fullslot value? If they think he’s worth it, then, by all means, proceed. It’s such an alien feeling and, again, I have to even remind myself it’s what I think. But since this front office has taken a depleted farm system and turned it into the top-ranked pipeline in the sport, they have my full support. And since I couldn’t pick any of these kids out of a lineup, I’m not going to pretend that my opinion matters anyways. So, do your thing, Elias—whatever it ends up being, I got your back.
One thing I’m guilty of (and I would pull 100% of my fellow technophobes under this particular bus with me) is a tendency to treat all online commenters of a certain topic as a monolith. This was extremely evident during the Hollywood Brown era. As a staunch Hollywood defender, I took offense to the constant deluge of online bashing he received. And I was quick to point out the apparent hypocrisy of the online Flock bemoaning the fact he was traded away. Now, clearly, if I take two seconds to think about it, a polarizing player is, by definition, going to have supporters and detractors. And it was likely the latter that criticized him while it was the former that decried the trade. But, as social media itself isn’t a place known for reasonable, temperate discourse, I feel no obligation for my reaction to social media to be any different.
I have a buddy who simply cannot help himself. Every time the O’s are linked to a SS draftee, he at some point blurts out, “Yeah but he might grow out of the position.” He’ll have no other info on the guy, won’t know his current height/weight or anything, but that won’t stop him from worrying that he’s going to fill out into more of a third baseman. This has nothing to do with this article, but if you plan on watching the draft with someone similar, please join me in taking a drink each time they say this.
I’d honestly be fine if they gave Termarr Johnson fullslot value, that’s how much I‘ve romanticized this kid’s bat.
Unless he’s the next Manny, of course. There’s a ubiquitous caveat for the next Manny.
I refuse to use the term ‘hit tool’ in earnest.
Related to potentially changing our view on Elias’ draft strategy, I think he’s also improved the farm system dramatically enough that he’s earned the right to take a flier on a HS kid. Even if ‘HS kid,’ in this case, is a little more derisive than usual. Because this isn’t some random kid. This is Andruw Jones’ son. When you can look your fanbase in the eye and say, “His ceiling is Andruw Jones,” and be completely and totally sincere, that’s incredible. And it’s probably less of a flier than usual.
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