Every NFL season, it seems like there's a division that refuses to pull its weight and put forth a suitable candidate for the playoffs. A division where, of it's four teams, none are really legitimate contenders, but one gets in anyway because of the league’s stupid setup. Last year it was the NFCE. I have a vague recollection of other years past when it was the AFCS or the NFCS or the NFCW or the NFCE (again). And, in 2021, sadly, after avoiding it for years, it may be that the AFCN wears the scarlet letter.
Admittedly, the word may is crucial to that sentence. The Bengals looked every bit the part of a playoff team during their methodical depantsing of the Ravens. And if they win out, this whole article can be ignored. But the last two weeks of the season are still up in the air. They could go 2-0, sure, or they could get stomped by the Chiefs and then for a second time by the Browns—and that would be a completely different situation. Should it be the latter, they’ll have eight losses, two coming at the hands of the Jets and Bears. If they weren't guaranteed a playoff spot simply by being a division winner, does that sound like a team that needs to be in the playoffs? An ascending team with a uber-talented roster, without question. But a team that deserves a playoff slot? I'm not so sure.
But what exactly constitutes a playoff team and whether this entire process makes sense is another article in itself. Here I just want to limit the focus to something very specific: Of the four teams in this stellarly mediocre division, which fanbase(s) would actually want to make the playoffs? Note, I said ‘fanbase.’ I’m not talking about the teams themselves. I have no doubt that all four of these franchises will do everything in their power over these last two weeks to get in. Every single one is within a window, whether opening or closing, and each desperately wants to make the playoffs. I'm talking about the fans. Do we want to see our team win the AFCN? When the Superbowl is such a long shot for these four middling teams, is the risk of a one-and-done obliteration (at home no less) worth a division crown?
The Ravens:
Absolutely not. Now, I know what you're thinking: Curious timing. Less than a week after my squad gets throttled on national television, and now, like a sullen, pockmarked teen, I’m muttering, "I didn't even want to go to prom anyway." Totally fair. And yes, we got physically, emotionally and spiritually annihilated by the Bengals—twice (I at least saw the second one coming). But, although I can’t prove it, it was as far back as the Bears game when I realized this team shouldn't want anything to do with mid-January football.
And, I’ll apologize up front. I know it's defeatist and annoying for someone to root against their own team. Especially when they root for a team that has demonstrated as much sustained success over the last two decades as mine has. In an attempt to quash that criticism, let me just point out that I always consider myself lucky to root for such a great franchise. And, typically, I’d say, “Just get to January…anything can happen…look at our last Superbowl!” But, for 2021, unless 2012-era Bryant McKinney perfects time travel in the next three weeks, I don't want this roster within 100 miles of a playoff game. As currently constructed, it’s not built to win in August, much less January. And I wouldn’t have this team favored at home against the Jags, so I certainly don’t want the five seed to come and embarrass us in our own building. We’ve felt that pain all too recently, and I just don't see how that's an enjoyable or productive experience for anyone involved.
And just to reiterate, I don't expect them to tank, nor do I want them to. I don't think I could take both my pro teams tanking at the same time, anyways. But, more importantly, as people whose opinion on the matter I regard highly have stated, tanking in the NFL, for some enigmatic reason, is just different than in other sports. It gets into a franchise's DNA. Taints its blood. And usually starts a chain reaction of calamitous events which takes a decade or two to escape from. So, I want them to try everything in their ability to win out—and I want them to come up just short.
Now it's not for any of the reasons commonly associated with such a wish. I'm not angling for a slightly higher draft pick (though that’d be a nice byproduct), as EDC can do more in the 20s than most GMs can do in the 10s. And it's not that I want this to be the nail in the coffin for Harbaugh or Martindale or Roman, as I hope all three come back. Nor am I any longer concerned with the chickenshit ‘Lamar Can’t Win in January’ narrative. I’ve become adept at completely tuning out all anti-Lamar biases and commentary. No, the reason is much more straightforward than any of that. Simply, I don't want Lamar taking one more snap behind this line than absolutely necessary.
And I don't want to throw any more dirt on Villanueva's name. Other Ravens fans have beat that drum sufficiently and continuously. I respect his effort, his willingness to switch positions multiple times, his refusal to point fingers anywhere other than himself and his service to the country, most of all. But with as much respect I have for him, I cannot watch him block (or not block) for Lamar another second. It's not fair to give Lamar ineffective protection, and, just as important, it’s not smart from a franchise building perspective. Somehow, against all odds, we’ve wrangled a unicorn. Let’s not expose it to its natural predators for a one-in-a-million chance of winning four straight games against superior opponents.
As great as it is to witness Lamar do anything on a football field, watching a playoff-caliber team tee off on him again, like we saw in Buffalo last year, would be excruciating. So let's not leverage the next decade for the tiny chance we have at a ring this year. Let's wait until we have a (pray to all the gods) healthy Stanley and an improved RT situation. Whether that means Mekari (congrats on the contract!) takes another leap forward or James returns to form or a draft pick steps in, I’m not sure. But I do know the 2022 tackles almost certainly have to be better than the current crop. And, if that's the case, even if the rest of the roster is totally depleted like it is this year, I’ll completely change my tune. I’ll want to see what Houdini can pull out of his hat come January 2023.
But if I can speak for the Flock this year: "Hard pass."
The Steelers:
As a Ravens fan, this is a paradox. It’s near impossible to pull for the Steelers, even in those rare situations when them winning benefits us in some way. It always makes me feel dirty. But, admittedly, this is the longshot I'm rooting for. Since, like us, they have no real shot at winning four straight playoff games, it's super low risk in terms of Lombardi count. And, since I’m an incredibly petty person, I can think of no more personably enjoyable sendoff for Roethlisberger than watching him get trounced at home in a playoff game. The last, indelible image being 80k fans, after 15+ years of service, booing him off the field.
If I were a Steelers fan (disgusting thought, I know) I guess I'd be torn. They did just beat the Titans at home, so maybe they aren't quite as dead in the water as it seems. But that was a regular season game and Tenn was missing it's best player. As objective as I can be on the topic, I honestly can't see them beating any of the potential WC teams. Even if they did, the road game the next week would be a bloodbath. Running into a brick wall is a certainty, it's just a matter of what week it happens.
But, even with the near-guaranteed eventuality of falling short, I think if I’m a Steeler fan, I say, “What the hell…let’s go for it.” I know there’s a sea change up ahead. A decades-long window is closing, and, at the moment, there isn't a QB in the draft worth tanking over. So why shouldn't we take a shot? The end result is going to be basically the same regardless, so why not try and squeeze one more trophy out of the guy? Add the defense at its peak to potential injuries/covid for other teams, and maybe it's more one in a hundred thousand than one in a million. And at the very least, we’d get another banner out of the thing.
If I'm a member of the Steel Curtain, I say, "What’ve we got to lose?" But I'm still totally content to avoid the certain misery if they fall short.
The Browns:
I was tempted to say that as a Ravens fan I wouldn't mind this either. That with how poorly Baker is playing, I'd love to see him hobble through a home playoff blowout. But I think this is less low risk than would initially appear. Their run game and front seven could do real damage in cold weather football. If they made it to the divisional round in, let's say, Buffalo, and the swirling wind made it impossible to throw like in last year's game, I could be talked into giving Cleveland the advantage.
And I know he's had beyond a tough year. And I know he's currently sporting the posture and gait of a 90 year old. But if I'm being totally honest, seeing Baker on the other sideline always strikes a little fear in my heart. He can be playing like dogshit for three and a half quarters and then go 75 yards in three throws. The guy might not have “it,” but he has something. And if he gets that something going for an extended stretch, that could be enough to win it all—something I never want to see a divisional foe do
But that's a big 'could.’ Would Browns fans be comfortable with such a gamble? Even with a scarecrow playing QB, they could still pull off an improbable running-and-defense championship run. Add in a potential Baker mini-resurgence and that certainly sweetens the pot. But if their run game and defense were capable of such a feat, they probably wouldn't be below .500 at this point in the season. And I don't know if anyone in their right mind thinks that, with the weather getting colder and playoff football taking an even greater toll on his body, Baker’s going to look less geriatric in a couple weeks then than he does now. So, you have to think the cards are severely stacked against them to even win the first one. I mean, they were lucky to beat Tyler Huntley and the defensive practice squad at home, and whoever the five seed is will certainly be more formidable than the Ravens backups.
So if I'm a Browns fan, even with the incredible amount of emotional stock I have tied up in this roster, I think I'll pass on the North this year. I've already seen a healthy version of almost this exact team go toe-to-toe with the Chiefs in the playoffs, so I don't need to prove anything to anyone. I already know these aren’t the same old Browns. And, I don't think my window is closing, either. Rather that this year was a hiccup and that we’re just a few pieces away from contending. I'll take the bump in draft capital, however meager it may be, over the hope that they can win four in a row against the NFL’s elite. And, though it's always nice to hang a banner, it'd be hard not to want to put an asterisk on a nine-win division crown. Do I want my first one to feel like it came with a set of training wheels? And is that pseudo-accomplishment worth watching a potential train wreck on my home field?
If I was part of the Dawg Pound, I’d give it a tepid ‘no’ but wouldn’t be that upset at the chance to watch Garrett, Chubb & Co. try and make something special happen.
But, I guess there is one last wrinkle to consider if I’m delving into a Browns fan's psyche: Do I want Baker back or not? Now, I don't follow any other teams all that closely. I don't know how the majority of their fanbase feels about him, so I can’t use that in my decision making. But if I'm anti-Baker, nothing changes. The Lombardi is too much of a longshot for me to want to risk Baker winning over ownership by gutting out two more wins. I’m hoping for a pair of losses and a new QB. Now, if I’m pro-Baker, it gets a little more complicated. Obviously it’d be nice to see him will the team into the playoffs, which would certainly add to the likelihood of signing him long term. But, I think reason has to win out over heart in this one. Any favors he does himself by winning the AFCN will be instantly squandered if he lays an egg in the playoffs. And, borrowing some of the Lamar reasoning from above, for his own safety, I don't want him to have to grind through another start. I want to protect him from himself. Then I just hope ownership loves the grit he displayed this year enough to give him one more shot. And, in April, uses that extra draft capital to get him another weapon or two. Either way, I’m thinking no playoffs is the smart move.
The Bengals:
The aforementioned pettiness is bubbling up, but I'll try not to let it spill over into a tidal wave of pissiness. And, though I’m 99.9% sure no Bengals fan will ever read this, I’m going to attempt to be less salty than I actually feel at the moment. So let's just get this out of the way: As of this writing, the Bengals are a very good team. A better team than the Ravens. They smacked us in the mouth twice and paid zero price for doing so (…yet). They are extremely talented, well-balanced, and I would hate to have to play them again this year. So I'll earnestly try and limit myself to no more than three snide comments about your club. It will be tough, no doubt, as I can’t fucking stand the Bengals right now. But, looking to the QB with the most impressive passing performance in week 16 as inspiration, I’ll summon my reserves and rise to the occasion. And, that QB's name, of course...is Dak Prescott (there's one!).
And remember, I’m writing this from the perspective that the Bengals lose their final two games and get blown out in at least one of them. If they win one or both, their answer is much more straightforward. But if they get smoked by the Chiefs and then lose a tight one to the Browns, would the Bengals fan base still want the chance to make like it’s 1991 and actually win a playoff game (there’s two!)?
It should come as no surprise that, as a Ravens fan, this is my least favorite scenario. The boom-or-bust Bengals could easily boom for a game or two. I doubt they could peak four weeks in a row, and I don’t think they can hang with the top echelon of the NFL quite yet—but even getting to the divisional round would be a huge accomplishment for a team that lost eleven games in 2020. And as much as I would love for them to shit the bed in the WC round, to be able to write mocking “Does Joe Burrow Have a Big Game Problem?” pieces, the risk isn’t worth the reward. They are clearly, even if they were to limp into the playoffs, the AFCN team with the most legitimate shot to win it all.
Now, as a Bengals fan, I might be wary of some minor red flags. Like how the team seems to no-show for certain games. Or how they are way too full of themselves for a team that lost to the Jets and Bears. Or how the coaching staff thought it was a good idea for a QB that missed most of 2020 due to injury to chase meaningless stats in the 4th quarter of a Week 16 blowout. Quick aside: no need to worry Bengals fans, you won’t get some sanctimonious rant from me about how it was disrespecting the game or any of that horseshit. The Ravens secondary wasn’t great, but they were getting paid to be there. Professional—using the term liberally—athletes should be capable of holding an opposing QB to less than 500 yards, regardless of their skill level. And Burrow had every right to put up crazy numbers against them. Was it dumb? Of course. Would Bengals fans have cried that we were dirty if he was hurt on a legit tackle in the 4th quarter? Without question. Was he trying to disrespect Martindale and the Ravens? Yup, and he had every right to do so. Was he disrespectful to the sport of football? Not a chance. But I digress…
So as a Bengals fan, minor red flags notwithstanding, would I want to win the AFCN? I might be hesitant. I might think we're still a year away and be leaning towards a better draft position—after all, a stellar roster is harder to maintain when you aren't drafting in the top five every year (...). I was about to say "there's three!," but can I really knock the Bengals when that's the exact strategy my favorite baseball team has employed over the last half decade. So, for any Bengals fans that still think I'm only using this as an excuse to take cheap shots at your franchise, let me offer what I believe is the highest of praise: I hope beyond all hope that the 2022 O's are MLB’s version of the 2021 Bengals. I hope for the chance to leave young stud pitchers in too long to chase K totals. I hope to break up no hitters with drag bunts. I want them to interpret innocuous comments as personal slights and to carry themselves with a dick-swinging swagger no matter what their record is. I want to be the punk freshman unafraid to stick their finger in the chest of some overly cocky senior. I want the mainstays atop the AL East to make offhanded, dismissive comments only to be secretly afraid to meet us in the yard. I want all of that shit.
So, using that bridge between the two franchises, I can definitively, as an O's fan, answer this question. Even if the O's lost every game in August and September next year, even if there was the possibility that they'd get beat 31-2 in a home WC game, I'd take the chance a hundred times out of a hundred. I would take any chance in the world to get the O's back into the postseason, so they might finally win a WS in my lifetime.
So if I'm in the Cincy Jungle, I’m going after the AFCN crown with everything I got.
And though I despise the team itself, the Bengals fanbase is the one I hate the least—but I can see that changing in the near future. Until that time comes, I've made peace with the Bengals winning the AFCN and possibly even one playoff game. I think I can stomach that. So I'm not exactly wishing you luck, Bengals fans, I don't want you to succeed. But as somewhat kindred spirits in rooting for recently downtrodden but incredibly proud franchises, I can find some joy in what you are experiencing. At the same time, a 42-0 beatdown at the hands of the Dolphins would be preferable, of course. And then it's officially Tim McGraw time...on to the next thirty years (there's three!).
I know it's a little odd to consider fans not wanting their team to chase a division title, but I think winning the AFCN crown this year is a little like making a very public and very cocksure declaration about investing a year's salary in a new cryptocurrency. Sure, you might hit the jackpot and look like a genius in the process. But it's much more likely everyone you know is going to rag on you for wasting your money on what amounts to the world's most expensive flash drive. Because whoever wins is surely falling way short of a championship and could be in store for some misery on their home turf. Knowing that, are any of these fanbases ready to pony up for northcoin? I'd say one should avoid it like the plague, two are teetering on the fence and the last just created a Coinbase account.
As to whether 8-8 (I refuse to acknowledge the 17 game season) or, even worse, 7-9 teams should even be in the playoffs, that's a question for another day. And it will be the topic I cover in the inaugural installment of my new segment: The Sports Tinkerer. Coming soon (or possibly never).